Sen. Kyrsten Sinema has set herself up for failure in the 2024 election cycle for the Senate—if she decides to run.
Sinema’s unpopular switch from Democrat to Independent has not only alienated Arizona Democrats—but more importantly,her lack of allegiance put her in the spotlight with other U.S. political parties and begs the question—if she would abandon her own party when it came down to crucial votes, is any party safe?
Reportedly, Sinema’s lavish lifestyle, lack of grass roots donations and a substantial list from Forbes of Sinema’sbillionaire donors (some of who are Trump backers) will also impede her chances as a viable 2024 Independent Senate candidate.
She was first elected to the Senate in 2019 as a Democrat, and in December of 2022 she switched her party ticket to Independent.
Sen. Thom Tillis, a North Carolina Republican who Sinema partnered with on a bi-partisan infrastructure bill said in a New York Times article in May, “If voters really are saying, ‘give me a viable alternative,’ then Sinema has a pretty solid argument to make.”
But switching party affiliation in Sinema’s case suggests that it may have been her only option and done more out of desperation or staying in the lucrative political financial game rather than a fresh alternative for a public in need of change.
The case the Sinema campaign would like to make is that she offers an alternative, but her substantial baggage cannot breathe change—there may be a new Independent name, but it’s more of the same.
One poll suggests that Sinema’s Independent run would finish last in a three-way race between Democrat Rep. Ruben Gallego, and defeated GOP gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake.
Sinema’s image has been permanently attached to her very public display of both her animated and orchestrated votes on the Congressional floor—votes that literally cut the throat of solid Democratic policy and have made her loathed among her former party.
In the era of extreme polarized politics and with Democrats and Republicans still taking the majority of the votes Sinema’spossible bid as an Independent likely won’t gain much traction with voters from any party.
She has, quite simply, solidified a reputation across political lines that she cannot be trusted.
And even though the American public is likely willing and ready to embrace a candidate that will cross political lines or debate and compromise—Ms. Sinema is not seen as that candidate.
With Ruben Gallego as the frontrunner for Democrats, he will most likely get the Democratic vote, with Sinema not able to garner the 20–25% of Democratic voters she needs.
According to Chuck Coughlin, a Republican consultant in Arizona regarding Sinema, “she needs 20 to 25 percent of Democratic voters, 25 to 30 percent of Republicans and 50 to 60 percent of self-identified independents.”
Kari Lake, is lugging her extremist baggage, she endorsed and backed Donald Trump during her previous run for governor—which she lost—but a renewed run for senate in 2024 may give Lake some of the Republican votes Sinema hoped to garner.
Along with switching her party, Sinema has also been accused of “answering to billionaires” instead of raising money and support through grass roots donors.
She has had a notable gap in raising grass roots money compared to her opponent Rep. Ruben Gallego and with her portrayals in the media of the billionaire for hire candidate she is not likely to appeal to those donors anytime soon.
Overall, Sinema’s outlook for a seat in the 2024 Senate is slight, it will remain to be seen if her switch to Independent may be indicative of a shift toward a new political era where more bi-partisan work can be accomplished with less polarization in the political arena—but Kyrsten Sinema won’t be regarded as the trailblazer of that new charge.
Ms. Sinema’s filing deadline to appear on the ballot in Arizona is April 2024.
